Hydrogen — when it fits, when it doesn't.

§ 01Why this deserves a fair question

Hydrogen triggers two reflexes. One calls it the answer to everything; the other calls it a pipe dream. Both are lazy. Hydrogen is a real molecule with real properties, a real role in the transition and real limitations. If you have to decide on energy for a site, reflexes are no use — a sober look at what can be delivered and evidenced today is.

This article makes that assessment from one angle: you need to replace fossil gas or diesel, demonstrably, and preferably this year. So what does hydrogen mean for you?

§ 02What hydrogen does well

Let's start with what hydrogen actually is. Renewable hydrogen — made by electrolysis using renewable electricity — is one of the few ways to decarbonise sectors that need the molecule itself. Refineries and fertiliser plants already use enormous volumes of hydrogen today, almost entirely made from natural gas; replacing that with renewable hydrogen is a direct climate gain without changing the process. For steel production via direct reduction, hydrogen is the main route away from coal. [1] [2]

On top of that, Europe is steering this way: RED III sets a target for the share of renewable fuels of non-biological origin in industry, and defines precisely when hydrogen counts as renewable. [2] [3] For heavy transport, aviation (via synthetic fuels) and seasonal electricity storage, hydrogen is a serious candidate in the longer term.

In short: where the hydrogen molecule is the feedstock, or where electricity cannot be stored or transported, hydrogen makes sense. That is not a small field of application.

§ 03Where it gets stuck

The problem is not the technology but the timing. In its annual review, the International Energy Agency notes that production of low-carbon hydrogen is still a small fraction of total hydrogen production, that a large share of the announced projects has yet to reach a final investment decision, and that a series of projects has been delayed or cancelled because of costs, demand uncertainty and missing infrastructure. [1] European monitoring shows the same picture: many announcements, limited operational capacity. [4]

For a user, that means three concrete limitations:

• Availability. At most sites in the Netherlands, renewable hydrogen cannot be supplied today in the volumes and with the continuity that a process or a construction site requires.
• Infrastructure. Transporting and storing hydrogen calls for different pressures, materials and safety provisions than gas; an existing gas installation or a generator set is not simply suitable for it.
• Proof. Whether hydrogen counts as renewable depends on strict conditions on the origin of the electricity. [3] That administration is new, complex and at this point hard for an end user to verify.

§ 04The pitfall: waiting

For many companies the biggest cost of hydrogen is not the price per kilo but the delay. "We're waiting for hydrogen" is why diesel stays in the generator set and natural gas stays in the process. Meanwhile tenders, reporting years and permit deadlines carry on regardless — and they don't ask what you're planning, but what you've done.

An assessment that takes hydrogen seriously therefore keeps two horizons apart: what makes sense ten years from now, and what can be delivered this year. For the second horizon there are three candidates in practice: electrification where the grid allows it, renewable gas where a physical chain is available, and HVO where proof is not a requirement. How they compare is set out in the comparison with electrification and in the HVO comparison.

§ 05When hydrogen is the route for you

To be precise: hydrogen is already the sensible route if one or more of these points apply to you.

• Your process uses hydrogen as a feedstock and you can replace the fossil source without changing the process.
• You're in an industrial cluster with planned or existing hydrogen infrastructure and have a supply contract with a demonstrably renewable source.
• You're building a new plant with a lifetime of decades and can design it hydrogen-ready without running on hydrogen today.
• You can demonstrate the renewable origin of the hydrogen under the European conditions. [3]

In all other cases — temporary power, decentralised sites, heat demand without a cluster connection — hydrogen is not an answer today to the question "how do I replace this demonstrably?". That may be different in a few years. So choose something that doesn't lock you in: a mobile chain you can scale back once the hydrogen route is there makes more sense than a fixed installation built on an assumption.

§ 06Where Powercrumbs stands on this

Powercrumbs is not against hydrogen; we see it as a route that isn't there yet for the applications we work in. Our chain — local renewable gas, delivered mobile, a file for every project — is designed to work today and to be let go tomorrow. Want to know whether your situation fits that profile? The fossil replacement assessment says so too when it doesn't.

§ 07References

• International Energy Agency (IEA) — Global Hydrogen Review — annual state of production, projects, costs and demand for (low-carbon) hydrogen, including delays and final investment decisions.Research report · annualHigh
• European Union — Directive (EU) 2023/2413 (RED III) — definition and sector targets for renewable fuels of non-biological origin (RFNBO), including renewable hydrogen in industry.Legislation · primaryPrimary
• European Commission — Delegated acts under RED II/III on the conditions under which hydrogen counts as renewable (additionality, temporal and geographical correlation).Regulation · implementationPrimary
• European Hydrogen Observatory — European monitor of hydrogen production capacity, projects and infrastructure.Market monitor · EUHigh

Full references (titles, dates, links) to follow.

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